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Abstract The Florida Everglades is a critically important, but highly threatened ecosystem that is becoming increasingly susceptible to the invasion of non-native species. This study investigated the ecological role of the invasive peacock eel (Macrognathus siamensis) within this ecosystem using 15 years of electrofishing data and stable isotope analysis. We investigated the population trends of peacock eels at the marsh-mangrove ecotone of the Shark River Estuary, the environmental factors contributing to their abundance, and the potential interactions they may have with native fish assemblages and coastal food webs. We used stable isotope analysis to provide insights into the basal resource contribution to peacock eels and hypervolume analysis to determine peacock eel trophic niche size and overlap with native species. Results of this study found that peacock eel abundance has rapidly increased, and their populations are strongly related to hydroclimatic regimes. Peacock eel abundance was positively associated with warmer water temperatures and greater marsh inundation periods. The trophic niche of peacock eels was significantly smaller in volume than that of native sunfishes (Lepomisspp.) indicating lower intraspecific resource use variability and suggesting a limited potential for inter-specific competition with these taxa. However, in recent years, the catch of peacock eels has outnumbered the catch of all native sunfishes combined. The feeding habits and pervasiveness of peacock eels in the coastal Everglades could lead to a decrease in abundance of benthic prey items targeted by peacock eels and alter food web dynamics in the system. Based on these data, peacock eel populations are predicted to continue to increase, highlighting the importance of continued monitoring of their potential impact on native fish assemblages and food webs. 

Abstract Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward‐moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold‐sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical–temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape‐scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical–temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change‐induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.